Discussion Thread: Midterm Election Polling | Week of October 30th 2018 - Politics

Discussion Thread: Midterm Election Polling | Week of October 30th 2018
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Discussion Thread: Midterm Election Polling | Week of October 30th 2018

Posted: 30 Oct 2018 05:33 AM PDT

Introduction

Welcome to the weekly /r/politics discussion thread for polling as it relates to the 2018 U.S. midterm election. The midterm election will take place on November 6, 2018. 36 gubernatorial seats, 35 US senatorial seats (33 regular plus 2 special elections), all 435 voting representatives in the US House of Representatives and part or all of 87 of 99 state legislative chambers (Nebraska is the only state that has a unicameral legislature) will be up for election. The past 3 midterm elections have been "wave" elections where the party not controlling the White House has won at least one House of Congress, and Democrats hope to turn President Trump's first midterm election into a referendum against his policies.

As we get closer to the election, polling will become more frequent, and race prognosticators will get bolder in predicting outcomes. Below are a selection of race prognosticators and polling aggregators, spanning the ideological spectrum (although generally fairly accurate). Please feel free to discuss current polling, predictions and everything else midterm election-related in this thread. As always, please be mindful of our commenting guidelines when posting.

Voting is already underway in much of the country! 36 states have some form of early voting, and many have no-excuse early voting. Check to see if your state's one of those to cast your ballot early.

Race Predictions

Race prognosticators are folks who make predictions as to the outcome of the election, and assign rankings for individual races. The most frequently cited (and organizations with most reputation) are the following:

Cook Political Reports: Governor | Senate | House
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Governor | Senate | House
Inside Elections*: Governor | Senate | House

^{*Inside Elections carries on from Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Reports.}

In each case, the above prognosticators are known for having connections with both parties who are willing to divulge party insider information, and have staked out a reputation from prior predictions for being accurate.

Next are a number of either recent, or partisan-leaning prognosticators that have also been cited:

FiveThirtyEight/ABC: House | Senate | Governor (quant model)
CNN Politics: Senate | House
Real Clear Politics (R-lean): Governor | Senate | House
Daily Kos Elections (D): Governor | Senate | House
RRH Elections (R): Governor | Senate | House | Row Officer
POLITICO: Governor | Senate | House

Rating Explanations:

Solid/Safe: Seat is not expected to change hands in the election.
Likely: Seat is unlikely to change hands, although is "on the board". A seat being rated "Likely" at the moment could also presage further shifts to more vulnerable categories later in the election. Generally, these are imagined as expecting one party to win by high single digits/double digits.
Lean: One party is likely to win, but it is not a surefire bet. In past races, candidates rated "Lean" have gone on to win about 70-80% of the time. Generally, these are imagined as expecting one party to win by mid to high single digits.
Tilt: Only a few prognosticators use this category. It generally means "Tossup", but one side is likely favored by low to mid single digits.
Tossup: Neither party is a favorite to win. In the past, about 40-60% of the time, the seat flips to the other party, accounting for certain factors in play (for instance, whether it is a "perennial" vulnerable seat, where a politician is better at appealing across the aisle and surviving). Generally, these are imagined as expecting the ultimate spread to be low single digits for either party.

Latest Polls

Polls generally can't be compared in an apples to apples fashion. Check out FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings to get a sense of pollster house effects, prior performance and reliability.

Early Vote

Many states keep tabs of votes as they come in, and there are resources around that keep track of how those votes come in. Below are a few state-specific and general projects of this sort:

Elect Project (Nationwide)
Texas Tribune (TX)
Michael Li (Brennan Center, also many TX stats)
Jon Ralston (NV)
Steve Schale (FL)
Election Smith (FL)
Georgia Votes (GA)
Old North State Politics (NC)

With the exception of a couple states, the early vote is difficult to use as a way of divining whether a party is ahead or not. Factors that make this difficult include when party members are more likely to return ballots (Republicans return ballots earlier, Democrats and infrequent voters tend to return them later), the timing of certain events (Democratic black churches organize "souls to the polls" events after Sunday services in the lead up to the vote in many Southern states), and even how states "register" a vote (eg. Ohio does not have "true" voter registration - it is which party primary you last voted in; North Dakota does not have voter registration at all). In some states, early voting is also relatively recent and does not yet form a large fraction of the total vote. As always, short of states where an overwhelming number of ballots are cast early, there is always uncertainty as to whether a party is "cannibalizing" election day voters and simply turning out voters early who would vote anyways - this doesn't tell us much about whether a candidate is ahead or not.

Register to Vote

Democracy isn't a spectator sport! If you're eligible to vote in the midterm election, please do so. Each election has consequences, regardless of what party you are affiliated with.