Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - October, 2019. - Politics

Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - October, 2019.
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Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - October, 2019.

Posted: 21 Oct 2019 04:48 AM PDT

Welcome to the /r/politics discussion thread for polling as it relates to the 2020 Democratic Primary. The Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary are just over three months away (February 3 and February 11, respectively) and the Democratic field is still in the process of winnowing. 12 candidates qualified for the October Democratic Debate, but stricter criteria aims to narrow the pack by mid-November before the next debate. Along with meeting donation-based qualification criteria (165,000 unique donors and at least 600 from 20 individual states), candidates must also receive at least 3% in four party-approved polls released since September 13th or at least 5% in two early-state polls in order to qualify for the November stage. As of today, only 8 have made the cut. Candidates have until November 13th to meet both the donation and polling thresholds.

The following candidates have met polling and fundraising criteria for the November Debate: Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders, Steyer, Warren, and Yang.

Pollster	Type	Date	Warren	Biden	Sanders	Buttigieg	Harris	Booker	O'Rourke	Yang	Klobuchar	Castro	Steyer	Gabbard
Suffolk	Iowa	10/21	17	18	9	13	3	--	--	--	3	--	3	3
Ipsos	National	10/18	15	21	16	5	3	1	3	2	--	1	--	2
Harris X	National	10/18	18	33	17	4	5	1	3	2	2	--	2	1
Morning Consult	National	10/16	21	31	18	6	7	2	2	3	2	1	2	1
Emerson¹	Iowa	10/16	23	23	13	16	3	3	--	5	1	--	2	2
YouGov	National	10/15	28	25	13	6	5	2	2	2	2	--	1	2
Capitol Weekly	California	10/15	35	21	15	6	8	2	--	3	1	2	1	2
Franklin Pierce²	New Hampshire	10/13	25	24	22	9	5	2	--	1	2	--	1	1
Quinnipiac	National	10/13	30	27	11	8	4	2	2	2	2	1	2	--
PPP	Maine	10/13	31	19	12	9	4	2	1	3	--	1	--	--
Yougov	South Carolina	10/11	18	43	16	4	7	3	1	1	1	--	2	--
Yougov	New Hampshire	10/11	32	24	17	7	4	1	1	5	2	--	4	2
Yougov	Iowa	10/11	22	22	21	14	5	2	2	--	2	--	3	1
Siena	New York	10/10	21	21	16	4	4	1	1	3	1	--	--	--
0ptimus	South Carolina	10/10	16	32	8	4	5	2	1	1	--	--	--	--
0ptimus	New Hampshire	10/10	25	18	9	7	2	2	1	2	--	--	--	--
0ptimus	Iowa	10/10	25	22	5	17	3	2	1	1	--	--	--	--
ECU	North Carolina	10/09	17	29	19	4	8	1	4	9	3	1	--	--
Fox News	National	10/08	22	32	17	4	5	2	3	2	2	1	1	1
Gravis	South Carolina	10/07	9	34	10	--	4	6	2	2	2	1	7	1
Climate Nexus	Ohio	10/07	21	32	13	5	6	3	1	3	--	1	1	--
Susquehanna	Pennsylvania	10/06	9	17	6	8	1	--	--	--	1	--	--	--
Avalanche	National	10/04	29	27	12	7	6	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Yougov/DFP	National	10/04	36	23	15	6	5	2	2	3	1	--	--	1
IBD/TIPP	National	10/03	27	26	10	7	3	--	2	3	1	1	--	1
Change	Wisconsin	10/02	34	11	25	6	3	1	1	3	1	--	--	3
Fox News	Wisconsin	10/02	22	28	17	7	5	2	1	2	2	--	--	1
Fox News	South Carolina	10/02	12	41	10	2	4	3	--	1	--	--	4	1

^{1 - Gov. Bullock received 4% of the vote in this survey. Prognosticators note that Emerson did not randomize the order of its questionnaire, and Bullock was listed first.}

^{2 - Fmr. First Lady Michelle Obama was polled in an alternative set of choices and received 26% of the vote in this survey.}

Here's 538's aggregator of state and national polls for those of you who want to do a deeper dive into the polling data.

submitted by /u/TheUnknownStitcher
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The "What happened in your state last week?" Megathread, Week 42

Posted: 21 Oct 2019 09:00 AM PDT

Welcome to the 'What happened in your state last week' thread, where you can post any local political news stories that you find important in the comments. This is a weekly thread posted every Monday, in order to facilitate more discussion on local issues on /r/politics. Since this is intended to be a thread about local politics, top-level comments that are exclusively about national issues will not be allowed. When commenting, please include the state you're living in, and don't forget to link sources. Also, please actually describe what happened. "I live in X, you know what happened" isn't helpful to users and will be removed.

If someone from your state made a news round-up that you think is insufficient, feel free to comment to that round-up with further news stories. Enjoy discussion, and review our civility guidelines before engaging with others.

submitted by /u/optimalg
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Trump was 'like a squirrel caught in traffic' during his 1st Pentagon meeting, top Mattis aide recounts

Posted: 21 Oct 2019 07:00 AM PDT