Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - December 2019 - Politics

Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - December 2019
The "What happened in your state last week?" Megathread, Week 51
Trump Adviser Caught on Tape Discussing ‘Aggressive’ Voter Suppression in 2020 — “Let’s start playing offense a little bit. That’s what you’re going to see in 2020. It’s going to be a much bigger program, a much more aggressive program, a much better-funded program,” Justin Clark said
McCaskill: 'Mitch McConnell has presided over absolutely destroying Senate norms'
Guess who paid for Donald Trump's crazy-corrupt Mar-a-Lago Christmas party? We did
The GOP Traded Their Souls for Tax Cuts and Judges. Dems Should Take Them Away in 2021.
#KremlinKevin Trends After People Point Out Top House Republican Kevin McCarthy Took Donations From Lev Parnas
Christianity Today sees boost in new subscriptions after calling for Trump's removal: editor in chief
Quickly Nominating Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren Is Democrats' Best Chance at 2020 — A long, drawn-out primary with weak moderates could spell doom for the Democrats’ chances in the presidential election.
Trump Meets the Four Tests for Impeachment
Senator Says GOP 'Deathly Afraid' Of Impeachment Witnesses, Would Make It Harder To Hide Behind 'Myth Of 'Perfect Phone Call'
Fox News, Trump’s Ministry of Propaganda | For Nearly a Quarter of American Adults, Fox News is Their Only Cable News Source. It Tells Them What Trump Wants Them to Hear.
Kevin McCarthy Told ‘1984-esque’ Lies About FBI Spying on Trump Campaign: Lawyers
Fox News Contributor: Rudy Giuliani Is ‘Transparently Corrupt’
Report: White House Froze Ukraine Aid 91 Minutes After Trump Asked for a “Favor”. The Pentagon was also asked to keep the request on the down low, which is totally an ask people make when everything's above board.
Navy Seal accused of war crimes meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago to thank him for his support — Eddie Gallagher, who posed with an Iraqi captive's body after allegedly stabbing him to death, reportedly gave gift to president at his Florida resort
Newly revealed emails show why Trump should fear a real Senate trial
Trump Says That Dictators Praise His 'Amazing' Performance As President
Reverend Al Sharpton says Evangelical Trump supporters "would sell Jesus out" after "Christianity Today" controversy
Kim Jong Un Wants Trump To Win In 2020, Former White House Adviser Says: 'All The Bad Guys Want Trump To Win'
Giuliani Associates Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman Leveraged Trump Connections in Ukraine Gas Meeting: Report
'Pretty Brazen Stuff': Email Shows Top Buttigieg Fundraiser Offering Campaign Influence in Exchange for Donations
Trump rails against windmills: 'I never understood wind'
Senate Republicans were laser-focused on confirming judges in 2019 — even the unqualified ones
Trump lashes out at windmills again, says they "will kill many bald eagles": "I never understood wind"
How to understand Trump now: Wounded child, drug addict or delusional gaslighter?
Observers Mystified After Trump Delivers 'Moronic' and 'Unhinged' Diatribe Against Wind Power

Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - December 2019

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 01:06 PM PST

Welcome to the /r/politics polling discussion thread for the Democratic primary. The Iowa caucuses are now just over 40 days away, and it's crunch time for all of the campaigns in advance of that crucial contest. Only 8 candidates qualified for the last debate (with Senator Kamala Harris having dropped out before the debate but after qualifying), and the DNC has recently raised its requirements further, to 225,000 unique donors and 5% national/7% statewide to qualify for the next debate. Thus far, only fmr. Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar have qualified, with the next possible candidates being businessman Andrew Yang and former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer. Former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg is also contesting the nomination, but has declined to take donor money (and, therefore, is ineligible for the DNC debates) or contest the first 4 nominating contests.

Below is a list of polls that have been released since the last megathread we did, showing where the candidates who qualified for the December poll stand. Please be mindful of following the rules of /r/politics when participating.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Buttigieg	Bloomberg	Klobuchar	Yang	Steyer
Ipsos	12/19	National	18	15	10	4	5	1	2	2
NBC/WSJ	12/17	National	28	21	18	9	4	5	3	1
Yougov	12/17	National	29	19	17	7	4	4	3	2
Emerson College	12/17	National	32	25	12	8	3	2	6	2
Civiqs/ISU	12/16	Iowa	15	21	18	24	--	4	3	2
CNN	12/15	National	26	20	16	8	5	3	3	1
Quinnipiac	12/15	National	30	16	17	9	7	3	3	1
Morning Consult	12/15	National	31	22	15	8	7	2	4	3
Suffolk U.	12/14	National	23	14	13	8	6	3	2	1
IBD/TIPP	12/14	National	26	18	14	9	5	2	2	2
HarrisX	12/14	National	29	13	13	5	5	3	3	3
Echelon	12/14	National	37	14	14	6	6	2	2	1
Marist College	12/11	National	24	22	17	13	4	4	5	--
Fox News	12/11	National	30	20	13	7	5	5	3	1
Change	12/11	South Carolina	27	20	19	9	3	2	2	5
Change	12/10	California	19	26	23	12	3	1	4	2
Emerson College	12/10	Iowa	23	22	12	18	2	10	2	3
CNN	12/09	Texas	35	15	13	9	5	1	3	2
CNN	12/08	California	21	20	17	9	5	2	6	1
MassINC/UNH	12/08	New Hampshire	17	15	12	18	2	3	5	3
Marquette	12/08	Wisconsin	23	19	16	15	3	3	3	--
Zogby	12/08	National	30	20	16	7	8	2	4	3
Monmouth U.	12/08	National	26	21	17	8	5	4	3	1
Capitol Weekly	12/07	California	19	19	23	14	5	4	5	1
Yougov	12/02	South Carolina	39	13	10	10	2	2	3	7
David Binder	12/01	National	29	15	14	10	8	2	2	2
Data for Progress	11/25	Delaware	35	13	11	8	1	1	1	--
UC Berkeley	11/27	California	14	24	22	12	2	3	3	1
Victory Research	11/25	Illinois	23	15	17	16	4	3	1	2
RCP	11/21	National	30	23	12	6	2	1	4	2

A few tips when looking at polling:

All polling isn't created equal. Some pollsters have distinct leans towards one candidate or another as a result of polling methodology that oversamples or undersamples certain demographics. A large distinction is online-only polls versus live caller vs robocalling polls. In other instances, some pollsters just consistently have poorer showings than others (the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings chart is a good approximation) and might warrant less weight.
Don't compare apples to oranges. Polls generally should reach the same result, but sometimes there is a systemic undervaluation or overvaluation of one candidate or another. Trendlines between polling firms is not very useful. Trendlines within the same poll, however, might yield much more useful comparisons.
Polling goes stale quickly at this time of the year. As we approach the Iowa caucuses, the polling will likely start changing a lot, which may or may not shake up the race. A poll from the beginning of the month might no longer be instructive at this point in time, for instance. A rolling average of recent polls is a better estimate, and what outlets like 538 and RCP tend to do when they have enough polling to do so.
Keep in mind the sample size. This isn't aimed at the toplines, but the cross-tabs that sometimes get published. These polls are often just 300-500 people nationally, meaning a subsample for a particular minority group or socioeconomic class can end up being just a few dozen responses, which often gets parsed for support for individual candidates. A trend across a number of polls is still significant, but individual polling in this case is less useful.
Polls are just polls. At the end of the day, polls don't vote, people do. If your candidate is down, or if they're doing well, the polls are only meant to be a reflection of what the pollster thinks the current electorate looks like. Don't take that to mean your preferred candidate is done, or that they have a glide path to the nomination. What happens in the primary is a product of far more than just the polling being done.

submitted by /u/Isentrope
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The "What happened in your state last week?" Megathread, Week 51

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 09:22 AM PST

Happy Holidays, /r/politics!

Welcome to the 'What happened in your state last week' thread, where you can post any local political news stories that you find important in the comments. This is a weekly thread posted every Monday, in order to facilitate more discussion on local issues on /r/politics. Since this is intended to be a thread about local politics, top-level comments that are exclusively about national issues will not be allowed. When commenting, please include the state you're living in, and don't forget to link sources. Also, please actually describe what happened. "I live in X, you know what happened" isn't helpful to users and will be removed.

If someone from your state made a news round-up that you think is insufficient, feel free to comment to that round-up with further news stories. Enjoy discussion, and review our civility guidelines before engaging with others.

submitted by /u/optimalg
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Trump Adviser Caught on Tape Discussing ‘Aggressive’ Voter Suppression in 2020 — “Let’s start playing offense a little bit. That’s what you’re going to see in 2020. It’s going to be a much bigger program, a much more aggressive program, a much better-funded program,” Justin Clark said

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 03:45 AM PST