Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - January 2020 - Politics

Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - January 2020
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Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - January 2020

Posted: 11 Jan 2020 10:43 AM PST

Welcome to the r/Politics polling discussion thread for the Democratic Primary. With only 23 days remaining until the Iowa caucuses, the field is continuing to narrow. Since our last discussion thread in December, Julian Castro and Marianne Williamson have suspended their campaigns. The seventh Democratic Debates will take place on Tuesday, January 14th and will feature the six candidates who met the DNC's polling and donor thresholds (5% in four approved polls OR 7% in two approved early-state polls, and 225,000 unique donors with at least 1000 in 20 different states or territories) by yesterday's deadline: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer. Michael Bloomberg is not eligible for the DNC debates because of his choice to decline donor money, and Andrew Yang fell short of the polling threshold.

Below is a list of polls that have been released since the last megathread we did, showing where the qualifying candidates stand. Please be mindful of following the rules of /r/politics when participating.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Buttigieg	Bloomberg	Klobuchar	Yang	Steyer
Ipsos	1-9	National	23	20	15	7	8	1	3	3
Ipsos^[1]	1-9	National	15	17	10	5	6	1	3	3
Capitol Weekly	1-9	California	20	24	21	11	6	5	7	2
Seltzer & Co.	1-8	Iowa	15	20	17	16	1	6	5	2
Fox News	1-8	Wisconsin	23	21	13	9	7	4	3	2
Fox News	1-8	Nevada	23	17	12	6	2	2	4	12
Fox News	1-8	South Carolina	36	14	10	4	2	1	2	15
Monmouth University	1-7	New Hampshire	19	18	15	20	--	6	3	4
YouGov	1-7	National	27	20	22	7	3	3	3	2
Emerson College	1-6	New Mexico	27	28	8	7	3	2	10	1
Morning Consult	1-5	National	31	23	14	8	7	3	4	4
YouGov	1-3	New Hampshire	25	27	18	13	--	7	2	3
YouGov	1-3	Iowa	23	23	16	23	--	7	2	2
YouGov	12-31	National	29	19	18	8	3	4	3	2
Harris	12-29	National	30	17	12	7	7	2	3	2
HarrisX	12-28	National	28	16	11	6	11	2	2	2
YouGov	12-24	National	30	17	19	7	4	5	3	1
Ipsos	12-19	National	18	15	10	4	5	1	2	2
McLaughlin & Associates	12-18	National	27	17	15	5	5	2	5	4

^[1] - Poll of Democrats and Independents (the other Ipsos poll from the same date range is of Democrats only)

A few tips when looking at polls:

All polling isn't created equal. Some pollsters have distinct leans towards one candidate or another as a result of polling methodology that oversamples or undersamples certain demographics. A large distinction is online-only polls versus live caller vs robocalling polls. In other instances, some pollsters just consistently have poorer showings than others (the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings chart is a good approximation) and might warrant less weight.
Don't compare apples to oranges. Polls generally should reach the same result, but sometimes there is a systemic undervaluation or overvaluation of one candidate or another. Trendlines between polling firms is not very useful. Trendlines within the same poll, however, might yield much more useful comparisons.
Polling goes stale quickly at this time of the year. As we approach the Iowa caucuses, the polling will likely start changing a lot, which may or may not shake up the race. A poll from the beginning of the month might no longer be instructive at this point in time, for instance. A rolling average of recent polls is a better estimate, and what outlets like 538 and RCP tend to do when they have enough polling to do so.
Keep in mind the sample size. This isn't aimed at the toplines, but the cross-tabs that sometimes get published. These polls are often just 300-500 people nationally, meaning a subsample for a particular minority group or socioeconomic class can end up being just a few dozen responses, which often gets parsed for support for individual candidates. A trend across a number of polls is still significant, but individual polling in this case is less useful.
Polls are just polls. At the end of the day, polls don't vote, people do. If your candidate is down, or if they're doing well, the polls are only meant to be a reflection of what the pollster thinks the current electorate looks like. Don't take that to mean your preferred candidate is done, or that they have a glide path to the nomination. What happens in the primary is a product of far more than just the polling being done.