Saturday Morning Political Cartoon Thread - Politics

Saturday Morning Political Cartoon Thread
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (July 19, 2020)
'I'll be right eventually': Trump again insists coronavirus will disappear, citing no evidence
The number of Americans who trust Biden to handle the pandemic better than Trump is increasing
'He's unteachable': Doctor blasts Trump's latest mask remarks
New polls show Joe Biden is winning suburbanites by a historic margin
It's now time to consider high-speed internet access not only as a necessary utility, but also as a civil-rights issue
The Data Proves Mail-In Voting Is Safe From Fraud & COVID-19
Joe Biden did not call for defunding the police
Portland Mayor: Feds Escalated the Situation
Trump declines to say he'll accept results of election: "I have to see"
Oregon Senator Vows Amendment to Bar Trump From Sending 'Paramilitary Squads Onto American Streets'
Opinion: Republican rule requires a massive Democratic clean up
Dr Birx told President Trump in April that the coronavirus would soon be gone and influenced the administration's push to reopen the economy and lift lockdown
Missouri governor says he'd pardon St. Louis couple if they are charged for brandishing guns at protesters
Poll: Biden leads Trump nationally by 15 points
Chris Wallace fact-checks Trump on U.S. coronavirus mortality rate
California Gov Was Reportedly Told He’d Have to Do the White House a Favor to Get Help With Testing Swabs
Roger Stone uses racial slur in interview with Black radio host
'This could happen in your city': Portland mayor issues stark warning over Trump admin's use of federal troops to quell protests
California Gov. Gavin Newsom reportedly had to personally ask and thank Trump for federal coronavirus help in order to receive it
Twitter disables Trump 'campaign' tweet over copyright complaint
Marco Rubio, Dan Sullivan pay tribute to John Lewis using the photo of a different black congressman
Trump Rush to Reopen America Is Causing a Covid Resurgence
State-level marijuana decriminalization is not enough
Trump not ready to commit to election results if he loses
Chris Wallace to Trump: Cognitive Exam 'Not the Hardest Test’, Involves Identifying an Elephant

Saturday Morning Political Cartoon Thread

Posted: 18 Jul 2020 08:00 AM PDT

It's Saturday, folks. Let's all kick back with a cup of coffee and share some cartoons!

Feel free to share political cartoons in this thread. Besides our usual civility policy, there are three rules to follow:

Every top-level comment must contain a political cartoon. This means no text-only top-level comments.
It must be an original cartoon. This means no photographs, no edited cartoons, no memes and no image macros. OC is allowed, as is animation.
Each top-level comment should only have a maximum of 3 cartoons.

That's all. Enjoy your weekend!

submitted by /u/optimalg
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General Election Polling Discussion Thread (July 19, 2020)

Posted: 19 Jul 2020 10:23 AM PDT

Introduction

Welcome to the /r/politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.

Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.

As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. Where the same poll applied different screening methodologies (All Adults, Registered Voters, Likely Voters), the result is shown as the most restrictive (Likely Voters > Registered Voters > All Adults). This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Trump
Fox News	7-19	National	49	41
ABC News/The Washington Post	7-19	National	54	44
Gravis Marketing	7-18	South Carolina	46	50
Public Policy Polling	7-18	Michigan	51	44
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	7-16	Kentucky	41	53
OH Predictive Insights	7-16	Arizona	49	44
Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape	7-17	National	49	41
Alaska Survey Research	7-17	Alaska	48	49
Monmouth University	7-15	Pennsylvania	51	44
NBC News	7-15	National	51	40
Ipsos	7-15	National	47	37
Quinnipiac University	7-15	National	52	37
YouGov	7-15	National	47	39
Rasmussen Reports	7-15	National	47	44
Monmouth University	7-15	Pennsylvania	52	42
YouGov	7-15	National	49	40
Morning Consult	7-15	National	47	39
Change Research	7-15	Michigan	48	42
Change Research	7-15	Wisconsin	48	42
Change Research	7-15	Pennsylvania	50	42
Change Research	7-15	North Carolina	47	46
Change Research	7-15	Florida	50	43
Change Research	7-15	Arizona	51	45
Change Research	7-15	National	51	41
Gravis Marketing	7-14	Texas	44	46
Gravis Marketing	7-14	Florida	53	43
Civiqs	7-14	Montana	45	49
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-13	National	48	39
RMG Research	7-13	National	46	39
YouGov	7-13	Missouri	42	49
Public Policy Polling	7-13	Montana	42	51
GQR Research (GQRR)	7-13	Nebraska CD-2	51	44
John Zogby Strategies	7-12	National	49	42
Gravis Marketing	7-12	Georgia	45	48
YouGov	7-12	Arizona	46	46
YouGov	7-12	Florida	48	42
YouGov	7-12	Texas	45	46
University of Texas at Tyler	7-12	Texas	48	43
GBAO	7-10	North Carolina	48	46
GBAO	7-10	Arizona	47	46
GBAO	7-10	Iowa	45	48
Morning Consult	7-10	National	48	39
Auburn University at Montgomery	7-10	Alabama	40	55
Data for Progress	7-10	National	51	41
Public Policy Polling	7-9	North Carolina	50	46
Public Policy Polling	7-9	Alaska	45	48
Harris Insights & Analytics	7-8	National	43	39
Rasmussen Reports	7-8	National	50	40
Ipsos	7-8	National	43	37
Opinium	7-8	National	52	40
Research Co.	7-8	National	49	40
YouGov	7-8	National	49	40
PureSpectrum	7-8	National	47	37
Public Policy Polling	7-7	National	53	42
Trafalgar Group	7-6	Pennsylvania	48	42
Public Policy Polling	7-6	Maine	53	42
Trafalgar Group	7-3	Florida	45	45
YouGov	7-2	National	45	40
Monmouth University	7-2	National	53	41
YouGov	7-2	Texas	44	48
Public Policy Polling	7-2	Texas	48	46
University of Montana	7-1	Montana	37	52
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	7-1	National	55	41
Gravis Marketing	7-1	Arizona	45	49
Public Policy Polling	7-1	Michigan	50	44
Ipsos	7-1	National	46	38
Harris Insights & Analytics	7-1	National	56	44
Public Policy Polling	7-1	Colorado	56	39
IBD	7-1	National	48	40
Data Orbital	7-1	Arizona	47	45
YouGov	7-1	National	49	40
Morning Consult	7-1	National	47	40
Change Research	7-1	National	49	41
Change Research	7-1	Arizona	51	44
Change Research	7-1	Florida	50	45
Change Research	7-1	Michigan	48	43
Change Research	7-1	North Carolina	51	44
Change Research	7-1	Pennsylvania	50	44
Change Research	7-1	Wisconsin	51	43
East Carolina University	6-30	North Carolina	45	43
Suffolk University	6-30	National	53	41
Pew Research Center	6-30	National	54	44
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	6-30	Missouri	48	46
Siena College	6-30	New York	57	32

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

FiveThirtyEight - this model isn't active yet, but it's the original model from Nate Silver that debuted in 2008 and really kicked off this genre of race prognostication. For now, here's the polling aggregates that they've set up in lieu of a now-cast (which is likely not returning to the model this year). Will likely also include Senate and House projections like in past years.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.

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'I'll be right eventually': Trump again insists coronavirus will disappear, citing no evidence

Posted: 19 Jul 2020 06:51 AM PDT