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Monday, December 23, 2019

Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - December 2019 - Politics

Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - December 2019 - Politics

Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling - December 2019

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 01:06 PM PST

Welcome to the /r/politics polling discussion thread for the Democratic primary. The Iowa caucuses are now just over 40 days away, and it's crunch time for all of the campaigns in advance of that crucial contest. Only 8 candidates qualified for the last debate (with Senator Kamala Harris having dropped out before the debate but after qualifying), and the DNC has recently raised its requirements further, to 225,000 unique donors and 5% national/7% statewide to qualify for the next debate. Thus far, only fmr. Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar have qualified, with the next possible candidates being businessman Andrew Yang and former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer. Former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg is also contesting the nomination, but has declined to take donor money (and, therefore, is ineligible for the DNC debates) or contest the first 4 nominating contests.

Below is a list of polls that have been released since the last megathread we did, showing where the candidates who qualified for the December poll stand. Please be mindful of following the rules of /r/politics when participating.

Poll Date Type Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Bloomberg Klobuchar Yang Steyer
Ipsos 12/19 National 18 15 10 4 5 1 2 2
NBC/WSJ 12/17 National 28 21 18 9 4 5 3 1
Yougov 12/17 National 29 19 17 7 4 4 3 2
Emerson College 12/17 National 32 25 12 8 3 2 6 2
Civiqs/ISU 12/16 Iowa 15 21 18 24 -- 4 3 2
CNN 12/15 National 26 20 16 8 5 3 3 1
Quinnipiac 12/15 National 30 16 17 9 7 3 3 1
Morning Consult 12/15 National 31 22 15 8 7 2 4 3
Suffolk U. 12/14 National 23 14 13 8 6 3 2 1
IBD/TIPP 12/14 National 26 18 14 9 5 2 2 2
HarrisX 12/14 National 29 13 13 5 5 3 3 3
Echelon 12/14 National 37 14 14 6 6 2 2 1
Marist College 12/11 National 24 22 17 13 4 4 5 --
Fox News 12/11 National 30 20 13 7 5 5 3 1
Change 12/11 South Carolina 27 20 19 9 3 2 2 5
Change 12/10 California 19 26 23 12 3 1 4 2
Emerson College 12/10 Iowa 23 22 12 18 2 10 2 3
CNN 12/09 Texas 35 15 13 9 5 1 3 2
CNN 12/08 California 21 20 17 9 5 2 6 1
MassINC/UNH 12/08 New Hampshire 17 15 12 18 2 3 5 3
Marquette 12/08 Wisconsin 23 19 16 15 3 3 3 --
Zogby 12/08 National 30 20 16 7 8 2 4 3
Monmouth U. 12/08 National 26 21 17 8 5 4 3 1
Capitol Weekly 12/07 California 19 19 23 14 5 4 5 1
Yougov 12/02 South Carolina 39 13 10 10 2 2 3 7
David Binder 12/01 National 29 15 14 10 8 2 2 2
Data for Progress 11/25 Delaware 35 13 11 8 1 1 1 --
UC Berkeley 11/27 California 14 24 22 12 2 3 3 1
Victory Research 11/25 Illinois 23 15 17 16 4 3 1 2
RCP 11/21 National 30 23 12 6 2 1 4 2

A few tips when looking at polling:

  • All polling isn't created equal. Some pollsters have distinct leans towards one candidate or another as a result of polling methodology that oversamples or undersamples certain demographics. A large distinction is online-only polls versus live caller vs robocalling polls. In other instances, some pollsters just consistently have poorer showings than others (the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings chart is a good approximation) and might warrant less weight.

  • Don't compare apples to oranges. Polls generally should reach the same result, but sometimes there is a systemic undervaluation or overvaluation of one candidate or another. Trendlines between polling firms is not very useful. Trendlines within the same poll, however, might yield much more useful comparisons.

  • Polling goes stale quickly at this time of the year. As we approach the Iowa caucuses, the polling will likely start changing a lot, which may or may not shake up the race. A poll from the beginning of the month might no longer be instructive at this point in time, for instance. A rolling average of recent polls is a better estimate, and what outlets like 538 and RCP tend to do when they have enough polling to do so.

  • Keep in mind the sample size. This isn't aimed at the toplines, but the cross-tabs that sometimes get published. These polls are often just 300-500 people nationally, meaning a subsample for a particular minority group or socioeconomic class can end up being just a few dozen responses, which often gets parsed for support for individual candidates. A trend across a number of polls is still significant, but individual polling in this case is less useful.

  • Polls are just polls. At the end of the day, polls don't vote, people do. If your candidate is down, or if they're doing well, the polls are only meant to be a reflection of what the pollster thinks the current electorate looks like. Don't take that to mean your preferred candidate is done, or that they have a glide path to the nomination. What happens in the primary is a product of far more than just the polling being done.

submitted by /u/Isentrope
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The "What happened in your state last week?" Megathread, Week 51

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 09:22 AM PST

Happy Holidays, /r/politics!

Welcome to the 'What happened in your state last week' thread, where you can post any local political news stories that you find important in the comments. This is a weekly thread posted every Monday, in order to facilitate more discussion on local issues on /r/politics. Since this is intended to be a thread about local politics, top-level comments that are exclusively about national issues will not be allowed. When commenting, please include the state you're living in, and don't forget to link sources. Also, please actually describe what happened. "I live in X, you know what happened" isn't helpful to users and will be removed.

If someone from your state made a news round-up that you think is insufficient, feel free to comment to that round-up with further news stories. Enjoy discussion, and review our civility guidelines before engaging with others.

submitted by /u/optimalg
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Trump Adviser Caught on Tape Discussing ‘Aggressive’ Voter Suppression in 2020 — “Let’s start playing offense a little bit. That’s what you’re going to see in 2020. It’s going to be a much bigger program, a much more aggressive program, a much better-funded program,” Justin Clark said

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 03:45 AM PST

McCaskill: 'Mitch McConnell has presided over absolutely destroying Senate norms'

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 05:31 AM PST

Guess who paid for Donald Trump's crazy-corrupt Mar-a-Lago Christmas party? We did

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 06:41 AM PST

The GOP Traded Their Souls for Tax Cuts and Judges. Dems Should Take Them Away in 2021.

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 03:20 AM PST

#KremlinKevin Trends After People Point Out Top House Republican Kevin McCarthy Took Donations From Lev Parnas

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 08:12 AM PST

Christianity Today sees boost in new subscriptions after calling for Trump's removal: editor in chief

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 04:43 AM PST

Quickly Nominating Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren Is Democrats' Best Chance at 2020 — A long, drawn-out primary with weak moderates could spell doom for the Democrats’ chances in the presidential election.

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 03:27 AM PST

Trump Meets the Four Tests for Impeachment

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 04:23 AM PST

Senator Says GOP 'Deathly Afraid' Of Impeachment Witnesses, Would Make It Harder To Hide Behind 'Myth Of 'Perfect Phone Call'

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 06:29 AM PST

Fox News, Trump’s Ministry of Propaganda | For Nearly a Quarter of American Adults, Fox News is Their Only Cable News Source. It Tells Them What Trump Wants Them to Hear.

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 06:02 AM PST

Kevin McCarthy Told ‘1984-esque’ Lies About FBI Spying on Trump Campaign: Lawyers

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 07:30 AM PST

Fox News Contributor: Rudy Giuliani Is ‘Transparently Corrupt’

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 01:35 AM PST

Report: White House Froze Ukraine Aid 91 Minutes After Trump Asked for a “Favor”. The Pentagon was also asked to keep the request on the down low, which is totally an ask people make when everything's above board.

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 07:53 AM PST

Navy Seal accused of war crimes meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago to thank him for his support — Eddie Gallagher, who posed with an Iraqi captive's body after allegedly stabbing him to death, reportedly gave gift to president at his Florida resort

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 03:36 AM PST

Newly revealed emails show why Trump should fear a real Senate trial

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 07:02 AM PST

Trump Says That Dictators Praise His 'Amazing' Performance As President

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 04:10 AM PST

Reverend Al Sharpton says Evangelical Trump supporters "would sell Jesus out" after "Christianity Today" controversy

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 07:32 AM PST

Kim Jong Un Wants Trump To Win In 2020, Former White House Adviser Says: 'All The Bad Guys Want Trump To Win'

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 07:38 AM PST

Giuliani Associates Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman Leveraged Trump Connections in Ukraine Gas Meeting: Report

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 04:29 AM PST

'Pretty Brazen Stuff': Email Shows Top Buttigieg Fundraiser Offering Campaign Influence in Exchange for Donations

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 04:14 AM PST

Trump rails against windmills: 'I never understood wind'

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 07:09 PM PST

Senate Republicans were laser-focused on confirming judges in 2019 — even the unqualified ones

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 05:29 AM PST

Trump lashes out at windmills again, says they "will kill many bald eagles": "I never understood wind"

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 08:46 PM PST

How to understand Trump now: Wounded child, drug addict or delusional gaslighter?

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 05:09 AM PST

Observers Mystified After Trump Delivers 'Moronic' and 'Unhinged' Diatribe Against Wind Power

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 08:12 AM PST
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Three former executives of a French telecommunications giant have been found guilty of creating a corporate culture so toxic that 35 of their employees were driven to suicide - All news

Three former executives of a French telecommunications giant have been found guilty of creating a corporate culture so toxic that 35 of their employees were driven to suicide - All news

Three former executives of a French telecommunications giant have been found guilty of creating a corporate culture so toxic that 35 of their employees were driven to suicide

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 04:33 AM PST

Alabama woman, 19, shot as authorities open fire, raid home in search of man who was already in jail

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 06:54 AM PST

600 gallons of oil spilled in waters off Galapagos Islands

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 03:45 AM PST

Sixty-nine Canadians giving up holidays to help with Australian wildfires

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 03:14 PM PST

The ‘Amazon’s Choice’ badge recommends products that are unsafe or fake, investigation finds

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 06:26 AM PST

Fake news report costs Bloomberg $7.6m in fines

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 04:28 AM PST

Journalist in Egyptian jail without charges or trial in breach of national and international law.

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 11:44 PM PST

Baba Ram Dass, Proponent of LSD and New Age Enlightenment, Dies at 88

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 05:16 AM PST

Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg is out, as the company struggles with 737 Max crisis

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 06:16 AM PST

ICE Agents Arrest Former DACA Recipient in West Covina

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 04:38 PM PST

Texas barber shot over 13-year-old's haircut, sheriff's office says

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 11:55 AM PST

Cosmetic surgery leaves teen brain damaged, mother 'just wants daughter back'

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 04:50 AM PST

Saudi Arabia sentences five to death for murder of Jamal Khashoggi | World news

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 02:00 AM PST

Special Report: Iran's leader ordered crackdown on unrest - 'Do whatever it takes to end it'

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 02:48 AM PST

Eleven dead, 300 treated after drinking coconut wine in Philippines

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 06:21 AM PST

Man broke in to university dorm in NYC, set fires as students slept, officials say

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 02:07 PM PST

GM, Ford and others cut thousands of jobs and closed factories to save billions in 2019

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 08:30 AM PST

Human remains have been found in Joshua Tree National Park

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 03:18 PM PST

Detective involved in Barnard student Tessa Majors case faces allegations he falsified evidence in other cases

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 11:00 PM PST

Tesla stock reaches $420, more than a year after Musk's 'funding secured' tweet

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 08:04 AM PST

Judge greenlights suit challenging ICE arrests at NY courts

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 11:43 PM PST

South Korea, U.S. commandos practice raiding enemy facility as North Korea tensions rise

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 07:05 AM PST

UK's number of doctors per capita is one of lowest in Europe

Posted: 23 Dec 2019 02:07 AM PST
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Sunday, December 22, 2019

'We thought it was a prank': Girl, 6, finds China prisoner plea in Tesco charity card. The note urged whoever purchased the cards to contact a British man who had been imprisoned in China in the same jail. - All news

'We thought it was a prank': Girl, 6, finds China prisoner plea in Tesco charity card. The note urged whoever purchased the cards to contact a British man who had been imprisoned in China in the same jail. - All news

'We thought it was a prank': Girl, 6, finds China prisoner plea in Tesco charity card. The note urged whoever purchased the cards to contact a British man who had been imprisoned in China in the same jail.

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 06:14 AM PST

A boy missing for more than two years found in the closet of a child pornography suspect

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 06:25 AM PST

Cuba names a prime minister, for first time in over four decades

Posted: 21 Dec 2019 08:34 PM PST

Huge, invasive bee-killing hornet turns up in Washington state

Posted: 21 Dec 2019 08:46 PM PST

Clashes as police try to clear Hong Kong protesters after Uighur support rally

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 05:39 AM PST

Pakistani children infected with HIV 'exposed to unsafe jabs'

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 07:14 AM PST

Legion of Christ finds 33 priests, 71 seminarian sex abusers

Posted: 21 Dec 2019 05:32 PM PST

Man fatally poisoned 9-year-old girl with chloroform while trying to sexually assault her

Posted: 21 Dec 2019 09:05 AM PST

Prosecutors will not file criminal charges against racetrack where 49 horses died

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 07:13 AM PST

Tractor trailer crashes into Desert Inn and Restaurant in Yeehaw Junction

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 05:55 AM PST

Boeing capsule returns to Earth after aborted space mission

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 05:46 AM PST

Texas man to be exonerated after DNA leads to new arrest

Posted: 21 Dec 2019 11:14 AM PST

A 78-foot alligator bonfire was just built on a Mississippi River levee

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 05:45 AM PST

Notre-Dame Cathedral to miss first Christmas Mass in two centuries

Posted: 21 Dec 2019 09:49 PM PST

Thirteen people shot at Chicago house party, police say

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 08:20 AM PST

Massachusetts woman mauled to death by her dog while suffering seizure, authorities say

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 08:33 AM PST

Lost Jeffrey Epstein suicide attempt video is supposedly found, awaiting further investigation

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 08:58 AM PST

45-car Pileup on I64 Near Williamsburg Va - few pics

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 08:38 AM PST

Scott Morrison rules out changes to government’s climate change policies amid bushfire crisis

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 08:13 AM PST

Man charged with threatening suspect in student killing

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 03:11 AM PST

19-year-old man dead, 6 others shot in Spring Lake Park

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 05:45 AM PST

Reports say 7 people shot early Sunday in downtown Baltimore

Posted: 22 Dec 2019 06:45 AM PST
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