Discussion Thread: KS, MI, MO and WA Primaries; OH-12 and MI-13 Special Elections - Politics

Discussion Thread: KS, MI, MO and WA Primaries; OH-12 and MI-13 Special Elections
I'm Rick Wilson, Republican ad-maker, political strategist, Never Trump founder, columnist, and author the best-selling book Everything Trump Touches Dies. Ask Me Anything!
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Discussion Thread: KS, MI, MO and WA Primaries; OH-12 and MI-13 Special Elections

Posted: 07 Aug 2018 05:07 AM PDT

Today, voters in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington head to the polls to select general election nominees. Additionally, voters in Ohio's 12th district will vote on a Congressman to represent them for the remainder of the Congressional term, and voters in Michigan's 13th district will nominate candidates for a special election to be held concurrently with the general election.

Please feel free to discuss the elections being held, but also to be mindful of our commenting rules when participating. If you are able to cast a ballot, please get out and vote!

Kansas

Kansas features several competitive elections this year. In the GOP primary, Governor Colyer is seeking a full 4 year term after he was elevated to the Governor's mansion following former Governor Sam Brownback's appointment by President Trump to be Ambassador-At-Large for International Religious Freedom. He faces Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach in the Republican Primary. Polls show a competitive race between the two. The winner will face independent Greg Orman and the Democratic nominee in the general election. All other statewide political offices will also hold primaries.

In the Congressional races, national race raters rate Kansas' 2nd and 3rd districts to be competitive (in the lean Republican to tossup category). A large Democratic field is competing for the Democratic nomination in the 3rd district to face 3 term incumbent Republican Kevin Yoder, while 2014 gubernatorial nominee Paul Davis faces no primary opposition in the 2nd district to compete for the open seat in the general election.

Polls will be open from at least 7AM to 7PM local time
Kansas requires voter identification in order to cast a ballot
Voter Registration deadlines have passed for the primary, but registration is still open for the general election. Kansas has semi-closed primaries; voters must be affiliated with the appropriate party in order to cast a ballot in that primary, but unaffiliated voters may declare a party affiliation at the voting precinct

Michigan

Michigan will be holding primaries for statewide political positions, Congressional seats, and a primary to nominate candidates for a special election, to be held concurrently with the general election, for Michigan's 13th District.

Incumbent Governor Rick Snyder is term-limited, and both Democrats and Republicans are holding competitive gubernatorial primaries. State Attorney General Bill Schuette is facing Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley in the Republican primary, while former state senate minority leader Gretchen Whitmer is competing with businessman Shri Thanedar and former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed in the Democratic Primary.

In the regularly scheduled Congressional primaries, Democrats see the open-seat 11th District and the 8th District, currently served by Republican Mike Bishop, as highly competitive. In the 11th, both parties are holding competitive primaries, with former Republican Congressman Kerry Bentivolio competing for the GOP nomination. In the 8th District, former Obama administration official Elissa Slotkin faces minimal opposition for the Democratic nomination. Race raters also consider Michigan's 1st and 6th districts as potentially competitive.

SPECIAL ELECTION: A special election primary is also being held in Michigan's 13th District. Long time Democratic Congressman John Conyers resigned in December of 2017 following allegations of sexual misconduct and blackmail. No Republicans filed to run in this election, while 4 Democrats, including Conyers' grand nephew, are competing to fill out the remainder of the Congressional term in a special general election to be held concurrently with the general election in November.

Polls will be open from 7AM to 8PM local time
Michigan does not mandate voter identification, but those without a valid ID must sign an affidavit attesting that they either do not have a valid ID, or did not bring it with them to the polls
Voter Registration deadlines have passed for the primary, but registration is still open for the general election. Michigan has open primaries; registered voters may cast a ballot in any party's primary

Missouri

Missouri is hosting a closely fought election between incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill, and state Attorney General Josh Hawley, in a race that will help decide control of the US Senate following the midterm election. The only other statewide political race is for Missouri state auditor, where incumbent Democrat Nicole Galloway is seeking a full term after she was appointed by former Governor Jay Nixon to fill the remainder of former state auditor Thomas Schweich's term following Schweich's death by suicide in 2015.

Congressional primaries are also being held. Democrats are holding a competitive primary in Missouri's 2nd district to face incumbent Ann Wagner in the general election. National race raters consider this affluent, college-educated district located in the St. Louis suburbs to be potentially competitive.

Polls will be open from 6AM to 7PM local time
Missouri requires voter identification in order to cast a ballot
Voter registration deadlines have passed for the primary, but registration is still open for the general election. Missouri has open primaries; voters are permitted to cast a ballot in any party's primaries without having to be affiliated

Ohio (Special Election)

Ohio's 12th district is hosting the final special Congressional election of the political cycle before the regularly scheduled midterm elections in November (note: special elections in MI-13, PA-07 (old), PA-15 (old) and US Senate special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi will be held concurrently with the midterm election). The 12th seat became open following former Congressman Pat Tiberi's resignation in January to head the Ohio Business Roundtable. Democratic Franklin County recorder Danny O'Connor and Republican state senator Troy Balderson face off in a district which President Trump carried by 11 points in 2016. Polling has shown a competitive race, albeit with consistent leads for Balderson.

Polls will be open from 6:30AM to 7:30PM local time
Ohio requires voter identification in order to cast a ballot
Voter registration deadlines have passed for this special election, but both O'Connor and Balderson have been nominated to compete in the general election irrespective of who wins the special election

Washington

Washington is holding only one statewide political primary - the nomination of candidates to face off for the US Senate seat currently held by Democrat Maria Cantwell. National race raters consider Washington's open 8th district seat to be competitive, as well as the 5th district currently held by Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Former Republican state senator Dino Rossi, who was also a former gubernatorial and senatorial candidate, is likely to garner a slot in the general election to face off against a Democratic candidate. Political analysts take particular interest in Washington's top two primary, because historically, the aggregate Democratic and Republican votes correlate with the ultimate vote in the general election.

Washington is entirely vote-by-mail; ballots may be returned in-person at drop boxes until 8PM local time
Voter registration deadlines have passed for the top two primary, but registration is still open for the general election. Washington has a top two primary, where the top two vote-getters in the primary will advance to the general election irrespective of party affiliation.

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I'm Rick Wilson, Republican ad-maker, political strategist, Never Trump founder, columnist, and author the best-selling book Everything Trump Touches Dies. Ask Me Anything!

Posted: 08 Aug 2018 07:24 AM PDT

I spent 30 years as a Republican ad-maker, political strategist and campaign consultant. Then, in 2015 I helped found the Never Trump movement. Donald Trump is not a fan. Everything Trump Touches Dies is my new book, and an instant best-seller. Let's do this.

https://i.imgur.com/pSdMdpe.jpg

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New York Republican congressman Chris Collins to be indicted on insider trading charges

Posted: 08 Aug 2018 06:28 AM PDT