Discussion Thread: NJ, VA, Special Congressional and Local Elections - Politics

Discussion Thread: NJ, VA, Special Congressional and Local Elections
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Discussion Thread: NJ, VA, Special Congressional and Local Elections

Posted: 02 Nov 2021 06:18 AM PDT

Today, voters in numerous states head to the polls to cast their ballots for various positions in state, local and federal government. Regularly scheduled off-off year statewide gubernatorial and legislative elections will be held in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as special Congressional elections in Ohio's 11th and 15th districts. There are a number of local elections as well, most notably in New York (mayoral elections in major cities such as NYC and Buffalo), Pennsylvania (for state Supreme Court), Texas (8 ballot measures), Washington (Seattle), Massachusetts (Boston), and Minnesota (Minneapolis).

In New Jersey, incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy is seeking reelection. He faces former state assemblyman Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Polls have shown a persistent lead for Governor Murphy and, if reelected, he would be the first Democratic Governor to win reelection in the state since 1977. The state House and senate are both also up for reelection. (Find Your Polling Location).

The marquee race of the night will be in Virginia, where a unique provision under state law prevents incumbent Democratic Governor Ralph Northam from seeking reelection in a consecutive term. Instead, Northam's immediate predecessor, former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe, is seeking election to a second term. He faces former Carlyle Group CEO Glenn Youngkin. Polls have shown a tight race throughout, though recent polling has shown momentum for Youngkin in the final days of the election. President Biden won Virginia by 10 points over former President Trump in 2020, but the state's gubernatorial elections have historically disfavored the party in power in the White House, the lone exception in decades being McAuliffe's win in 2013. If elected, Glenn Youngkin would be the first Republican to win a statewide race in Virginia since 2009. The state is also holding lieutenant gubernatorial and attorney general elections (where incumbent Democratic attorney general Mark Herring is seeking a 3rd term), as well as elections to its House of Delegates. (Find your Polling Location).

In Florida, a primary election will be held in Florida's 20th congressional district. The seat was vacated following the death of long-serving former Congressman Alcee Hastings, who died in April of this year from pancreatic cancer. President Biden won this district by 55 points in the 2020 presidential election, and the seat is not considered competitive in the general election. The Democratic primary hosts 11 candidates. Polling is sparse/nonexistent, but frontrunners likely include healthcare executive Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, and Broward County Commissioners Dale Holness and Barbara Sharief, and state House representative Omari Hardy. The winner of the primary faces either Jason Mariner or Greg Musselwhite in the general election.

In Ohio, 2 special elections will be held in Ohio's 11th and 15th congressional districts. In Ohio's 11th district, Democratic Cuyahoga City Councilwoman Shontel Brown faces off against Republican Laverne Gore in this safely Democratic seat that voted for President Biden by a 61 point margin. In Ohio's 15th district, Democratic state House representative Allison Russo faces off against Republican Mike Carey in this safely Republican seat that voted for former President Trump by a 26 point margin. Neither election is expected to be competitive. (Find your Polling Location).

There are also other competitive elections across the country, a few of notability listed below:

In Boston, city councilwoman Annissa Essaibi George faces off against fellow city councilwoman Michelle Wu in the race for mayor. Acting mayor Kim Janey had sought election to a full term but was eliminated in the September primary, and subsequently endorsed Wu. The race is officially nonpartisan, but both candidates are Democrats and Wu in particular has attracted endorsements from Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley.
In Minneapolis, city council elections will be held under ranked choice voting. More importantly, Minneapolis voters will consider a ballot measure to eliminate a charter requirement for a minimum number of police officers. The question comes over a year after the tragic murder of George Floyd by then-Minneapolis Police Department officer Derek Chauvin, which sparked a wider call to address systemic racism in society and for criminal justice reform in the largest protest movement in US history.
In New York, mayoral elections will be held across major cities in the state. Incumbent NYC mayor Bill de Blasio is term limited and ineligible to run. In his stead, Democratic Brooklyn borough President Eric Adams faces off against Republican Curtis Silwa in this heavily Democratic city. The race to watch in New York, however, will likely be the Buffalo mayoral election, where incumbent mayor Byron Brown was defeated in the Democratic primary by India Walton. Mayor Brown is instead mounting a write-in campaign to try and keep his job. Walton, who identifies as a Democratic Socialist, has received a broad range of endorsements, from both of New York's US Senators Schumer and Gillibrand, downstate Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Congressman Jamaal Brown, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and local state legislative representatives. Brown has secured the endorsements of downstate Congressman Tom Suozzi and local elected officials. Polling has been sparse and uncertain in this election, given that mayor Brown is seeking reelection as a write-in, but suggest a significant advantage for Brown if voters are made aware of the option to write in his name.
In Pennsylvania, the major election of the night will be for state Supreme Court, where Democratic superior court judge Maria McLaughlin faces off against Republican Commonwealth court judge Kevin Brobson. Incumbent Republican justice Thomas Saylor is ineligible for a retention election, as he will reach the mandatory retirement age of 75 in December. Pennsylvania's Supreme Court will likely play a pivotal role in this crucial presidential swing state as the state finalizes its legislative redistricting process. A PA Supreme Court decision in 2018 which invalidated a Republican gerrymander of congressional districts and implemented competitive and relatively fairer districts played an important role in helping Democrats pick up 4 seats in the state. Should Democrats win this seat, the state Supreme Court would stand at a lopsided 6-1 Democratic majority.
Finally, in Seattle, incumbent Mayor Jenny Durkin announced she would not seek reelection. Former councilman Bruce Harrell and councilwoman M. Lorena González advanced from the top two primary in August to vie for this position. The race is officially nonpartisan. Seattle will also vote on its next city attorney. Incumbent Democratic city attorney Pete Holmes sought reelection, but was eliminated in the primary. In his stead, Democrat Nicole Thomas-Kennedy (frequently abbreviated NTK by supporters) and Republican Ann Davison will face off in this race tonight. Thomas-Kennedy attracted national attention for her abolitionist platform, which calls for decriminalizing sex work and gradual elimination of prosecutions for misdemeanor crimes (which fall under the jurisdiction of the city attorney).

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